Five Stages of Grief for the Winning Side, Too

1. Denial: “But Senator Clinton hasn’t conceded yet! She doesn’t admit that she’s lost! She keeps moving the goal posts, continues playing the race card, it therefore must not really be over for her. We need her permission to move on!

2. Anger: “If the rest of you don’t lash out at what’s upsetting me in exactly the way I am, you’re as bad as she is!”

3. Bargaining: “This means that Obama has to put Clinton on the ticket (like Andrew Sullivan says, ‘hello again to all that!’). Oh, wait, scratch that: he has to put a Clinton supporter on the ticket. Or maybe he has to put a different woman on the ticket… or how about…”

4. Depression: “Where’d everybody go? God, I miss the adrenaline of when this was a real contest!”

5. Acceptance: “Oh, goodie: More adrenaline to come! A general election campaign! Of course Obama will choose his running mate according to his standards. I bet it’ll be as smart a move as those that got him here!”

The Movie That We Live In

By Al Giordano

A milestone:

“Rasmussen Reports will soon end our daily tracking of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. Barring something totally unforeseen, that is the choice American voters will have before them in November. While we have not firmly decided upon a final day for tracking the Democratic race, it is coming soon.”

Heady times.

Open thread.

So, Which Field Hands Predicted North Carolina and Indiana?

By Al Giordano

Indiana results:

Clinton: 643,797 (50.6 percent) 38 delegates
Obama: 629,310 (49.4 percent) 34 delegates

Spreadsheet of Field Hand Indiana predictions.

North Carolina results:

Clinton: 652,824 (41.7 percent) 49 delegates
Obama: 875,683 (55.9 percent) 66 delegates

Spreadsheet of Field Hand North Carolina predictions.

Who are our gold, silver and bronze medal winners in each of these contests this week?

Myth Buster #1: Bill Clinton and the Rural Vote

By Al Giordano
(First in an ocassional series busting media myths about the ‘08 campaign.)

Remember all the hype about how former president Bill Clinton’s barnstorming across North Carolina’s rural regions would bring great advances for Senator Clinton’s campaign?

Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro and Carrie Dann of First Read did the math:

According to NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann, Bill famously did more than 50 campaign stops in North Carolina – all told, they encompassed a whopping 41 of the state’s 100 counties. BUT: Only 18 of those counties went for Hillary Clinton. (The former president actually spent more than one long day campaigning in a string of towns, which all eventually went for Obama and by no small margin either.) For her part, Hillary Clinton did 22 stops in the Tar Heel State, for a total of fifteen counties. But she won only THREE of the counties she visited (Gastonia, Iredell, and Henderson).

I’m Al Giordano and I approve this message!

Weather Report

By Al Giordano

Cloudy skies may soon give way to sunny days…

Also: Don’t miss the cover of this week’s Time.

(The new Iron Man suit is requiring me to upgrade my browser software to be able to post images again: tech team is headed here to the Field House on Friday to help Mr. All Thumbs do it.)

Update: More from CBS News…

Out of the Mouths of Tools…

By Al Giordano

Former Clinton White House tool George Stephanopoulos, now posing as a journalist for ABC, let the game slip in his dog-and-pony show with fellow tool Charles Gibson:

CHARLES GIBSON: Is there any discussion of what kind of an exit strategy there would be?

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: There are various exit strategies right now. Number one would be, go out on a win. So, stay in until West Virginia, where Sen. Clinton is likely the winner, and Kentucky on May 20, and after that, bow out. Two, negotiate for the imposition of Michigan and Florida, to get those delegations seated, declare victory on that, and get out. But the big one, Charlie — and this is what some people close to the Clintons are talking about: Is there a way to negotiate a settlement with Barack Obama to have Sen. Clinton on the ticket?

Kos makes the case against this silliness very intelligently:

…that one should be a non-starter from the start. This isn’t a call based on bitterness or hate, but practical politics. The VP candidate needs to be a subservient figure, someone who won’t outshine or overshadow the presidential candidate. Let’s face it, Hillary is too strong a personality to play that role (not anymore), and the drama the Clinton family carries with them would be a distraction from Obama’s core message. Seeing how Bill Clinton has comported himself this primary season, no one wants to see him around the rest of the year. He’s been a disgrace.

Furthermore, at a time that the GOP is fractured, demoralized and broke, few figures can bring in the dough than the Clintons. There’s no reason to give Republicans a boost by putting Clinton on the ticket.

What about her positives? She doesn’t deliver geography (few vice presidents do, remember Edwards), she doesn’t add “experience” to the ticket, since she always overplayed her credentials on that front, she probably brings some credibility on health care, but little else. There’s the “unify the party” thing, but that’s overplayed as well. In 2000, McCain supporters claimed they wouldn’t support Bush, and they did. And in 2008, McCain’s enemies (and he has many in his party) claimed they’d never support him, and yet now they do. Few in our party want 100 years of war, the end of Roe v Wade, and the continuation of the Bush/Cheney agenda.

And then there’s demographics. Obama does far better with independents than Clinton ever did, and let’s not kid ourselves that she can deliver working class white males to the party during the general election any more effectively than John Edwards did in 2004, or than Obama can do on his own…

If someone starts an online petition to Senator Obama that politely explains why this is such a horrible idea - for him, his party and his country - I’ll sign it big enough so that they won’t need their spectacles to read it.

That would be a useful task for an organization like MoveOn.org, wouldn’t it? Tell ‘em I’m in and will steer thousands of eager signators there.

After all, “turn the page” means forward, not backward.

The Headline Says It All

By Tracy Russo

In tight Senate votes, McCain not a maverick

When it matters the most, he seldom bucks his own party

Via The Arizona Republic:

The voting pattern seems at odds with the popular narrative that McCain’s maverick tendencies make him an unreliable conservative.

“He is a conservative who votes conservative on most issues,” said Keith Poole, a political scientist at the University of California-San Diego. “By no means is he a liberal or even a moderate.”

Can we please kill the “maverick” stuff now? Pretty please?

The Youngest Super Writes A Letter

By Tracy Russo

OK, this is fun. A few weeks ago, College Democrats of America President Lauren Wolfe, and her Vice President, Awais Khaleel posted a video on YouTube asking for input from their peers before they endorsed.

Today, the Obama blog features a compelling appeal to the two students from Jason Rae, the DNC’s youngest member and endorser of Barack Obama.

Awais and Lauren—

I wanted to take a minute as both your friend and a fellow super delegate and encourage you to endorse Senator Barack Obama. I know that you have been hesitant because of your role within the College Democrats of America, but as you well know, Senator Obama has emerged to speak to and speak for our generation. He is the voice of this generation.

I appreciate and respect the efforts you have made to make sure you are representing the millions of college students involved in the Democratic Party through your YouTube video. However, I think you need to make your choice known now. I firmly agree with DNC Chairman Howard Dean that it all of the remaining superdelegates need to make their candidate preference known. We need to come together as a party and go forward to November united behind a candidate. We need to stop fighting with each other and take the fight to the Republicans. We need to fight for health care for all Americans. We need to fight for an improved K-12 education system. We need to fight to make college affordable for all who want to pursue a degree. We need to fight to give a voice to the voiceless and hope to the hopeless.

This letter would not be complete if I did not encourage you to support Senator Obama. After being lobbied heavily by both campaigns because of my role as the youngest superdelegate, I endorsed the Senator in February. I encourage you to do the same. He has done more to draw new voters into the process than I have seen of any candidate. I believe he can keep them engaged through November and through his eight years in office. He has truly brought out a new generation of loyal and dedicated activists. Youth turnout in the Democratic primary has doubled or even tripled in most primary and caucus states. Not only that, but young people are overwhelmingly supporting him. In Wisconsin alone, Senator Obama received 73% of the votes of 18-to-24 year old. This is similar in states all across the country. Our generation is speaking clearly and loudly in support of Senator Obama.

I sincerely hope you will consider endorsing Senator Obama and doing it soon. If we unite behind a banner of hope and change, we can take back the White House and resume our position as the leaders of the free world. We can mend damaged relationships abroad and return our focus to those who need our help here at home. It’s time to stand up.

Sincerely,

Jason Rae

Knowing all three parties involved, I applaud the transparency of their efforts. And I think Jason captures pretty perfectly the way in which Senator Obama has appealed to young voters, who continue to turnout in massive numbers. In fact, yesterday in Indiana, more young voters outperformed older voters (65+). And the youth vote in all states so far means we can expect unprecedented levels of participation in November.

Also noteworthy, Team Obama has a delegate countdown on their front page, which is sure to be a lot of fun to watch, especially if this thing drags on. As if super delegates needed another reason to feel super special, imagine being the one whose endorsement clinches the nomination. That’d be pretty damn cool.

Because They Said So…

By Tracy Russo

Like many other Democrats, I am anxiously waiting for the day when we have an official nominee. Without a dog in the fight, I’ve been content to let the remaining contests play out, sit back and observe. But last night, what I observed was disgraceful.

It is one thing to watch supporters of Senator Obama to aggressively cheering on his campaign. It’s inspiring. It’s amazing. It gives me hope for a strong and vibrant campaign in the fall - a campaign filled with passionate people working because they believe in their ability to change the world.

It is one thing to watch bloggers, like our dear Al, offer up analysis, advice and a good dose of sarcasm as the race unfolds, their bias made public and their commentary quite personal. That’s par for the course. That’s entertainment. That’s part of the game.

It is another thing entirely to watch 4+ hours of supposedly neutral pundits on cable TV gloat over the demise of the Clinton campaign. As the night went on, Chris Matthews, Tim Russert and even my favorite of them all, Keith Olbermann continued to disappoint.

And with every passing commercial break, I found myself more and more frustrated by their behavior. Leaving aside the complete lack of racial diversity or female perspective (because I so love it when a bunch of old white men tell me what to think), the longer we waited for the results from Indiana, the worse their behavior became.

At one point, I heard them attribute the media’s obsession with Reverend Wright’s remarks to the Clinton campaign. In one fell swoop, they both blamed the Clinton campaign for single-handedly making it an issue, and then mocked them for the way in which that strategy failed. Never mind that it was pundits like Matthews and Russert that thrust those comments onto cable TV and then proceeded to discuss them in a never-ending loop. Never mind that it wasn’t the Clinton campaign, but Reverend Wright himself who decided to reinvigorate the controversy by going on a “look-at-me” press tour. No, according to what I heard last night, it was all the doing of the super evil geniuses behind Senator Clinton - and look at how they failed.

I wonder what we’ll see when we have time to remove ourselves from the daily grind of this campaign and look back at the way in which the media influenced this election and our public discourse around the candidates. Will it be as obvious then, as it is to me now, how entrenched and acceptable the misogyny spewed daily has become? Will we be able to look back and say that there was something quite unnatural about the level of hatred so many had for Hillary Clinton? Will we ever be able to understand why?

I doubt it. I think once this is all said and done, we’ll forget the sins of so many. We’ll choose to look back at this exciting period of American history, where barriers were broken and remember only the good things about this primary race - much the way a mother forgets the terrible pain of labor once she holds that perfectly small child in her arms for the first time.

And when another woman tries for the highest office in the land, hopefully, we’ll have grown up enough to handle it and she won’t have to subject to the terrible whims of a mostly male punditry.

As for what lies ahead, if and when the Clinton campaign calls it quits, Democrats better be ready for the maelstrom that awaits. There is nothing exciting or noteworthy about a placidly polite campaign and someone is going to be made the villain. Someone will fill the void that is left behind when it gets down to two. And somehow, I don’t see the media setting their sights on John McCain.

Feinstein Calls Clinton to the Principal’s Office

By Al Giordano

The Obama campaign’s message of “let’s not put public pressure on Senator Clinton to drop out” created a vacuum into which Clinton’s own supporters are now stepping in to fill.

Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-California):

“I, as you know, have great fondness and great respect for Sen. Clinton and I’m very loyal to her,” Feinstein said. “Having said that, I’d like to talk with her and [get] her view on the rest of the race and what the strategy is.”

Clinton, who eked out a win in Indiana Tuesday night but lost big to front-runner Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) in North Carolina, has not responded to Feinstein’s phone call, the California senator said.

“I think the race is reaching the point now where there are negative dividends from it, in terms of strife within the party,” Feinstein said. “I think we need to prevent that as much as we can.”

Sit back and enjoy the show.